There are times in history when a nation seems to hover at the edge of something…uncertain whether it will stumble, fall, or take flight; Iran feels like it’s at such a point now, and while I don’t claim to know exactly where it’s going, recent events suggest that the ground is shifting under the Islamic Republic’s feet and shifting fast.

Last week, Israel launched one of the boldest operations in the region for decades, targeted strikes on more than a hundred Iranian nuclear and military facilities.

They weren’t half-measures.

Fordow, Natanz, and other heavily fortified sites were hit, senior IRGC commanders reportedly killed and although Iran fired back, its response felt more like a reflex than a demonstration of strength.

This wasn’t just a military strike. It was psychological.

Iran’s regime has long presented itself as untouchable – the backbone of “resistance” against the West and Israel.

But now, after a decade of boasting and bluffing, it looks exposed…and exposure breeds doubt, not just among foreign powers, but inside the country itself.

A Country Already Boiling

We shouldn’t pretend the regime was on firm footing before this. Iran has been simmering for years. Mass protests, constantly crushed by brute force. Women publicly removing their hijabs, despite arrests and beatings. Teachers, nurses, farmers and bakers all out on strike in dozens cities.

These aren’t isolated grievances.

These are the symptons of a country that’s tired.

Iran’s young people have no memory of the Shah; many weren’t born when Khomeini died.

They’ve grown up under sanctions, internet restrictions, rampant inflation, and fear. The dream of a theocratic utopia has long since curdled. What’s left is a bitter clerical oligarchy that no longer even believes its own slogans.

The Pahlavi Question

And into this uncertain moment steps a familiar name: Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah. He isn’t asking to be crowned. He’s not clinging to the past. In fact, he’s been careful, perhaps too careful, to say that he wants a secular, democratic Iran chosen by the people, not a throne restored by force.

But symbols matter, especially in Persian culture. The monarchy may have been toppled in 1979, but it was never entirely erased. For many, especially in the diaspora, the name “Pahlavi” still carries weight. It evokes a different Iran – flawed, yes, but modern, connected to the world, proud of its ancient heritage. Not this paranoid, black-clad theocracy with its martyrdom cults and viscious secret police.

That doesn’t mean Pahlavi is the answer.

But it does mean he is AN answer. A focal point. A known quantity in a landscape otherwise full of unknowns.

Let’s Not Get Carried Away

That said, we should be honest about the obstacles. The IRGC still has the guns. The regime still controls the judiciary, the media, and the mosques. And even if it falls, who’s to say what comes next?

Revolutions are rarely tidy.

Iran is not short on factions: secular liberals, Islamists who want reform not removal, Kurdish nationalists, communists, monarchists. There’s no guarantee they’d all pull in the same direction once the current regime is gone.

And there’s a cautionary tale here too. The West has seen this play out before. Libya. Syria. Even Iraq. Removing a dictatorship is one thing. Replacing it with something better is far more complex.

Still, Iran is not any of those countries. It has a long civic tradition, a large and educated middle class, and a cultural memory that stretches back millennia. It could stabilise if there is a unifying figure and a transitional vision. And that’s where the Pahlavi name might just help. Not as a return to royal rule per se, but as a symbolic bridge between past and future, tradition and change.

What Should the West Do?

Cautiously, but clearly, we should be watching this very closely.

Regime change from outside won’t work, but supporting independent media, secure communications, strike funds, and exile opposition networks could tip the balance – if and when the moment comes.

It cannot be about installing a puppet or pushing a restoration. It must be about being ready to help Iranians chart their own course, if they choose to rise again.

Final Thoughts

Is a revolution coming? Perhaps.

Is the monarchy coming back? No, not in the old sense.

But could Iran evolve into something new, drawing on its old identity, led in part by a name once cast aside? That’s perhaps no longer unthinkable…possibly it’s back on the table.

What is clear is this: the Islamic Republic is running out of road; and when that happens anywhere countries reach for symbols. They remember who they were, in order to imagine who they could be.

In Iran’s case, that memory might just include a king – not to rule again, but to help the people stand again.